Friday, 12 July 2013

Mega Dhoni Vs. Bevan Best Finisher Stat fight

But are either as good as a Stunner?
Dhoni wins another game for India and there are calls to recognise him as the greatest chaser/finisher in ODI history. Now, we can argue on semantics on who can do the most damage and is the last person that a bowling side wants to see take strike in the last over of an ODI, but they just cannot compare to stone cold statistics. And here, I shall see the merit of the statistical case of ranking Dhoni above the previous greatest finisher in ODI's, Michael Bevan.

Why is this comparison being made now?
It is being done now as Dhoni has finally gotten close to the level of games that Bevan played during his career. Dhoni has 226 ODI's as compared to Bevan's 232, Dhoni has 96 innings chasing compared to Bevan's 81, and more important than all those, it is because you, the reader, want it to be done and we here at Cardus (Keshav and Keshu), provide what you need for your cricketing soul.

Right, on with the numbers.
Out of the 96 innings that Dhoni has played while chasing, his side has won 54 times (56.25% success rate), while Bevan got a victory in 45 of those innings (55.56%).

Dhoni's average of 52.45 in all chases (successful or not) is below Bevan's chasing average of 56.50. Furthermore, Dhoni averages above 40 in chases against only Bangladesh (137), Pakistan (77.42) and Sri Lanka (82.84), which means he doesn't actually chase well against a lot of teams.

In contrast, Bevan averages over 40 in all chases against all teams, other than West Indies (39) and Kenya (15). This certainly shows that Bevan was a much more consistent performer against all sides, while Dhoni may be accused of boosting his performances against sub-continental teams.

When comparing averages in chases they have won, Dhoni overtakes Bevan quite significantly, averaging 100.09 compared to Bevan's 86.25. But the fact remains that Dhoni continues to enjoy his time against Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, keeping an average of 262, 172.5 and 157.20 against these opponents, while having an average of 10.33 against South Africa. Bevan gets even more superlative in his consistency in chases won as he maintains an above 50 average against all teams, apart from Kenya (15) and boosting his average against West Indies from the aforementioned 39 to 136 in wins. Bevan also has a 100+ average in chases won against Zimbabwe (121) and Pakistan (133.50), while he averages 97.33 against India.

But averages don't tell the whole story. Looking at their scoring rates, Bevan scored at a strike rate of 66.42 in chases won, which was well below his career strike rate of 74.16. Dhoni scores his runs at a brisk rate 89.63 in chases won, which is marginally higher than his career strike rate of 88.17. If we magnify Bevan's strike rate by the amount that scoring has increased for all batsmen between the period that he was active (RPo of 4.72) and Dhoni's career (5.01), Bevan would still be striking his runs at a rate of 70.50 runs per 100 balls. Thus, Dhoni is far and away the more dynamic striker. Doing the same to Dhoni's average, it would reduce his average to 98 in wins.
So what about their peers?

Considering their playing careers, and a cut-off of a minimum of 20 innings played, these two certainly had the best averages in chases won. Dhoni's average of 100.09 is followed by Misbah-ul-Haq's average of 89.83 (1.11 times) in 27 innings, while Bevan's average of 86.25 leads Arjuna Ranatunga's glorious average of 74.70 (1.15 times)in 34 innings, which shows that Bevan was slightly better, but not conclusively so.

Taking the number of other batsmen who had averages above 50 during their playing periods doesn't help. Bevan's playing days saw 33 batsmen above that benchmark and Dhoni's have seen 31 batsmen. However, the change in strike rates is the most eye-catching bit about the two sets of players though.

Dhoni's time has seen 10 players average more than 50 while scoring at a strike rate above 90. This list is so exclusive, that not even Dhoni makes it to this list. In Bevan's time, this list was so exclusive, that there was only one member in it over the 10 years of Bevan's ODI career, and he was Sachin Tendulkar. Tendulkar scored at an average of 64.90 at a strike rate of 92.38 from 14 April 1994 to 29 Feb 2004. Why does nobody ever put him in the ranks of greatest chaser ever?

But anyway, getting back to the topic at hand. We have seen that Dhoni scores heavily against a handful of teams, while Bevan scored against everyone other than the cricketing powerhouse of Kenya. Dhoni can certainly play bigger shots and chase higher scores but such was never asked of Bevan and we cannot rule out the possibility that he might have been able to do the same. Neither has proved that they were significantly better than their peers. If it was for the most valuable player, Dhoni would certainly clinch it with his wicket-keeping, but we are only considering their batting exploits.

 I fear, that stats have not quite been able to help us here. Hence we must settle it the old fashioned way... a drunken fist-fight to the death.

Sunday, 30 June 2013

Cardus' XI to most likely forever dominate the cricketing Multiverse

The Kraken appealing viciously for an LBW
Everyone loves hating selectors and somehow also love to pick their own XI's. There is a certain appeal inherent in creating fantasy playing sides that could never play together due to a number of reasons, mostly dealing with the inflexibility of time and space (what a party pooper that concept of Physics is). But here is a side which is made up of members who completely refuse to bow down to Physics and shall aid in helping to let the Universe find its true reason for existence, i.e. Test cricket.
So here is a complete side, ready to put on their caps and stroll out onto the village green to conquer, enslave and emancipate the audience. They come from a variety of backgrounds and thus it is important to not only give them a batting position, but also tell them their role within the team. Hopefully, they don't just all kill each other, and we should be winning the 2017 Test Championship with this lot.

No.1 Leonard Shelby (Opening Batsman/ bowler (if you tell him he can))
As an opening bat, it is often important to forget about the previous ball, as Virender Sehwag can attest to, and no one forgets the previous ball better than Leonard Shelby. A true see ball, hit ball, in any case forget ball type player, he can provide the type of direction in the innings that is crucial to any Test Match and will certainly add to the thrilling narrative that is Test cricket. He can sometimes appear clueless while running between the wickets but being the unselfish team player that he is, he often plays with no scoreboard pressure and does not celebrate personal milestones, almost as if he doesn't know his own score and will also bowl if you tell him he can. A great talent, if he shows up for the match.

No.2 Dexter Morgan (Opening Batsman)
A classical batsman with a great eye and favouring the off-side with his patented cuts, slices and slashes, Morgan provides a great contrast to his opening partner. Scheming ways and means to dissect the bowler, Morgan plays with the long game in mind and can sometimes be the cause of madness for those close to him due to his almost Boycott like nature. A natural cricketer in every way, he has even acquired the superstition attached with the sport, saying that he has a sliver of wood from the stumps of every game he has ever played in a box at his home.

No.3 Oskar Schindler (Batsman)
Though born in a non-cricketing country, Mr. Schindler certainly knows a thing or two about nurdling and noodling singles through gaps in the field. Being an accumulator has served him well and he is well respected in the non-cricketing world which lends him some much needed stature for a role as important as no.3 in the line-up. Another competitor who was considered highly for this role was Andy Dufresne, but his criminal record means he might not be allowed to travel with the team at all times and seriously, who needs all that paperwork?

No.4 Sachin Tendulkar (Omnipotent deity)
Because there can only be one no.4 in any line-up made by me at any given point of time.

No.5 Leonidas (Batsman/Captain)
A true leader of men who organised men through military discipline, he is a shrewd tactician and can get his team members to pull in the same direction. Being renowned for his defensive technique, he often sees himself as the last line of resistance in any batting line-up and will not give up ground to the bowlers without a fight. Having gained notoriety for defending low scores with few bowling resources with his local team, he will surely enjoy the considerable bowling wealth of this team, though the lack of discipline in this line-up may infuriate him. He has been a part of many successful campaigns in the past, but I think the defeat in the quadrennial Greece Vs. Persia tournament of sudden and excruciating death, where his side were defeated within 3 days by a much stronger Persian line-up, may be the exact thing that he needs to spur him on to success with this squad.

No.6 Mario (All-rounder)
A true utility man if you ever met one. Having competed in everything from F-1 to Baseball to Golf to stone cold murdering of animals in an almost psychopathic manner that has certainly destroyed the natural balance of all areas that he has ever been to, Mario has done it all. And now he turns his sight to what could be his biggest triumph, being a part of this squad. The Italian plumber turned controversial sex symbol can bat, bowl and field while riding Yoshi and is an important member who adds maturity, balance, stability and moustachioed magnificence to this side.

No.7 The Kraken (Leg-Spin, Off-Spin, SLA, Chinaman)
Mystery spinner from the bottom of the ocean, the Kraken has proved to be a divisive figure in the ICC. He can bowl leg spin, off-spin, Chinaman or slow left arm based on which tentacle the ball is placed in. Due to being born with excessively flexible limbs, he can often let his tentacles bend more than the prescribed 15 degrees while bowling the wrong-un off his 3rd, 4th, and 6th tentacles. His enormous girth has often drawn comparison to the likes of Shane Warne for being a roly-poly spinner leading him to develop a taste for sexting on at least 4 phones simultaneously and human flesh.
Though some might denigrate him for being a showman (he does not come to the bowling crease until his Captain yells,' Summon... THE KRAKEN!', followed by thunder), he certainly seems capable of enjoying a long career due to him being nearly immortal. All in all, a must have spinner for almost all conditions.

No.8 Zeus (Fast Bowler)
Known as Bolty, Zeus has been claimed as the next generation Jeff Thomson. Able to deliver thunderbolts from a high release, he consistently gets under the batsmen or curses them to be eaten out by a bird daily for the rest of eternity... a pretty good party trick, if you ask me. He has been known to perform better when served with a diet of mindless worship and reverence, though this diet has still not been cleared by WADA.

Though temperamental, he brings back some of the classic staples of cricket, such as the beard of WG Grace  and the class superiority of a 19th century British lord who thinks the proletariat classes should be happy with their lot in life and just be happy that they are being allowed to serve the Gods. Truly, a classical at heart.
No. 9 The Flash (Fast Bowler)
Probably the fastest bowler in the side, Flash, otherwise referred to by his mates as James May, has been known to skittle out sides quite cheaply in domestic cricket. Not only has his skiddy bowling action seen the back of many a batsman, his fielding in the outfield has saved countless runs for his side, though sometimes he moves so fast that his hand phases through the ball, something he has been working on tirelessly in practice. His speed does mean he can bowl a rather heavy ball and this means he can be a crucial bowler in the death overs. If things don't work well, he can always tear through time and space and try again.

No.10 Forrest Gump (Right Arm Medium-Fast)
A man known for his athletic achievements across the spectrum of the sports world, be it American Football or Ping Pong or The Vietnam War, Mr. Gump has done things most others can only dream of. Coming out of his sporting retirement for a last crack at sporting excellence, Mr. Gump can no longer hide his admiration for the greatest sport in the universe and has taken to cricket in a bowling capacity. Capable of a military medium, Gump is a large hearted bowler who will run in all day as per the wishes of his Captain with near metronomic accuracy. Some may call him unable to think a batsman out, but after the serious pace of Bolty and James May, Gump may provide the perfect foil as the medium-pacer to help maintain control of proceedings as well as lend a sense of discipline to the rest of this side of super-egos.

No.11 Spiderman (Wicketkeeper)
A true old-style keeper, picked on his keeping ability and nothing else, Spiderman may be the only glover able to keep to the bowlers of this team. Behind the stumps, he is agile and his uncanny ability to make catches stick mark him out from the other hopefuls for this spot. However he is not without controversy as his webbing is often larger than ICC regulations allow for which has caused much furore across the world. His use of artificial webs as well as the use of symbiotes have also been the matter of much debate as lawmakers continue to argue whether they should be considered as performance enhancers. But until they can legislate clearly on that issue, he will continue to be a member of this team.

No.12 Stone Cold Steve Austin (Drinks Man)
A man with a passion for his drink, he is widely touted to be the one to finally break David Boon's record of 55 cans of lager in flight from Australia to England. He often brings enough liquid encouragement to cheer up the lads and his wicket celebrations are the stuff of legend. Some may call him unhealthy for the team atmosphere as he has been known to give his teammates a drink and then stun them after consumption of said drink, but I say let the boys be boys and have a bit of fun at the physical expense of others.

Right, let the global domination begin.

Thursday, 26 April 2012

The Frank Worrell Trophy round-up

I have been forced back into the world of blogging due to the rather shocking events that transpired yesterday. Yes, I am talking about the release of MLA Jhina Hikaka by the Maoists in Orissa. But there has been some cricket taking place in the meantime and I'm certainly more excited to talk about that rather than the negotiating strategies of the government of Orissa.
An important series which is on its last day is the Frank Worrell Trophy between West Indies and Australia and it has been tense stuff. I won't use the word exhilarating because it hasn't been a stream of quick wickets or runs but an ongoing interrogation of batting technique as well as the patience of bowlers. A particular spell to underline this battle was the spell of Fidel Edwards to James Pattinson, where the bat was beaten on almost every second ball, but Pattinson survived by being not quite good enough to hit any of the balls and Edwards went away a man thinking the world was against him. It is this sort of play that makes for tense but admittedly tedious play and why Test Cricket shall remain the pinnacle of display of cricketing technique.
One thing which has been interesting to look at how the two sides are coping with the current team composition. While Australia have David Warner at the top, West Indies are missing their own enforcer by way of IPL, leaving Kraigg Brathwaite at the top. Now Brathwaite is the sort of opening batsman that has been made extinct thanks to Sehwag and Warner is the new breed. However, looking at the way he has gone about his business, Warner is willing to graft for his suns as well, which is a great sign for the Aussie teams of the future. Enough cannot be said about the continued inspection on Ponting and his form, but as Ed Cowan said, Ponting's average of 24.33 in this series masks the fact how difficult it has been to score at any pace in this series.
I think another round of congratulations should be handed out to Shivnarine Chanderpaul for reaching the milestone of 10,000 runs. Playing Dravid to Lara's Tendulkar is a job not greatly appreciated and the irony is that some of the most useful players through time have simply not been appreciated and the biggest of them is perhaps Jacques Kallis.
A major reason why I stayed up to watch these games is Lara Darren Bravo. His style is so similar to a certain other West Indian that it is almost a time machine back into the late 90's. In fact many of the commentators have mistaken him for another man from Trinidad repeatedly and who can blame them. For me, watching till 3 in the night is worth it as long I get to sample another of those flashes outside the off-stump after which the ball magically disappears to the backward point fence.
  
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